NCAA Predictions (Updated)

I'll probably put my predictions on my blog for the three huge track meets of the summer- NCAAs, Olympic Trials, Olympics.

Will add actual results at the conclusion of the meet.

Original Predictions (6/9/2021 before any events): 

Corrections/Actual Results in this red font (6/13/2021)

Men's 800m

1. Charlie Hunter, Oregon 1:44.8 3rd in 1:45.75

2. Brandon Miller, Texas A&M 2nd in 1:44.97

3. Isaiah Jewett, USC 1st in 1:44.68

4. Finley McLear, Miami (Ohio) 4th in 1:45.80

5. Kameron Jones, Clemson Did not make final

Hunter probably isn't the favorite here, but he's maybe the biggest name after a big indoor campaign that saw him win the indoor NCAA title. I expect him to deliver on the biggest stage of competition. Miller and Jewett are both great, but I'll give Miller the edge since he beat Jewett at regionals. McLear should do well as he barely lost the indoor title to Hunter. Jones has run fast, but I don't think he's at the level of these other guys. 

After watching the prelims Wednesday, I expected even more that Hunter would win as both Jewett and Miller had to make it on time to the final and barely got it in. Hunter more or less cruised to win his heat. Barely making finals is not a great sign, but both went out hard in the final and held onto to run a great time. I was close on the winning time and correctly predicted the top four finishers, but got the order wrong.

Mens' 1500

1. Yared Nuguse, Notre Dame 3:33 2nd in 3:35.60

2. Cole Hocker, Oregon 1st in 3:35.35

3. Eilud Kipsang, Alabama 4th in 3:38.18

Nuguse and Hocker are both outstanding and the race will likely be between them. Nuguse soloed his 3:34 collegiate record in a prelim and I just don't see Hocker doing that. Kipsang is known to go out fast and I think with other guys there, Nuguse can be pushed to go 1-2 seconds faster. Hocker should be right there, but I think Nuguse has the extra bit of grit and toughness that will lead to a victory.

A little off on this one. I expected a super fast time since Kipsang has been going out hard, but he ceded the lead to Nuguse here who was content to go a little slower (62s second lap). Hocker and Nuguse both closed fantastic with sub-1:50 last 800s, but it was Hocker who had just a little more. I think with a faster first half, Nuguse could have prevailed and Kipsang could have edged out 4th placer Waleed Suliman, but it seems the fast last 800 was better for Hocker.

Men's 5K

1. Cooper Teare, Oregon 13:18 1st in 13:12.27

2. Luis Grijalva, NAU 2nd in 13:13.14

3. Cole Hocker, Oregon 4th in 13:18.95

4. Wesley Kiptoo, Iowa State 13th in 13:30.87

This one is really tough, but should be between those top three. There's an argument that Hocker is the best runner here, after dominating so many races in 2021, including his NCAA indoor double win in the Mile-3K where he beat a fresh Teare. With Hocker doubling back from the 1500 and this likely being the last collegiate race for Teare and Grijalva, I think Kiptoo will make it fast and Teare and Grijalva will close hard from far out where Hocker won't be able to stay with the pack.

The only event I was kind of close on, as I did the top two correct and was one place off on Hocker. Didn't expect the race to be that quick, but 3rd placer Athanas Kioko helped push the pace after Kiptoo faded which kept the race quick and put a tired Hocker out of contention for the win (I don't think he would have beat Cooper in a slower race however). Wasn't expecting Kiptoo to have such a poor weekend though.

Men's 10K

1. Conner Mantz, BYU 27:51 2nd in 27:42.46

2. Edwin Kurgat, Iowa State DNF

3. Wesley Kiptoo, Iowa State 11th in 28:03.65

4. Robert Brandt, Georgetown 4th in 27:43.17

5. Abdihamid Nur, NAU 3rd in 27:42.73

6. Charles Hicks, Stanford 7th in 27:47.63

7. Adrian Wildschutt, Florida State 8th in 27:48.89

8. Vincent Kiprop, Alabama 14th in 28:19.12

9. Alex Masai, Hofsta 6th in 27:45.19

10. Patrick Dever, Tulsa 1st in 27:41.87

11. Isai Rodriguez, Oklahoma State 10th in 27:52.92

12. John Dressel, Colorado 12th in 28:03.87

13. Aaron Bienenfield, Cincinnati 17th in 28:33.05

Mantz and Kurgat are both great, as they are the last two NCAA XC champions. Kurgat hasn't really been on the same level in 2021 and Mantz destroyed Kiptoo in cross so I think he's the favorite here. The rest are really close in ability and it's a toss up for the all-american positions. I expect most of the top 8 should come from this group. 

I was off on this very unpredictable, very deep and fast 10K final. I think Mantz left it a bit too late as he doesn't have the final stretch kick that others do. I don't think anyone was expecting Dever to win as he came in with a 28:28 PR, in which he finished 30 seconds behind the two Iowa State guys in this field. The Iowa State guys, Kurgat and Kiptoo, did poorly especially as both were considered to contend for the win.