A little over a week out from the athletics portion of the olympics, so I'll give my picks here. My trials picks were a mixed bag: 2/3 men's 800, 2/3 men's 1500, 2/3 men's 5000, 1/3 men's 10K. There's a bigger gap between the best of the US and the next contenders, whereas on an international stage everyone is so good that it's really tough to predict. I'll do my best but will probably be way off. These are just kind of random events that I'm following.
Men's 100
1. Trayvon Bromell (USA) 9.81
2. Andre DeGrasse (Canada) 9.90
3. Ronnie Baker (USA) 9.92
I don't really know what I'm talking about with the sprints, but the men's 100m has been really exciting this year. Bromell has the world lead and has won all but one race, he's the clear favorite going in. DeGrasse has had mixed results but an impressive medal count that few others in the field can match. Baker was second at trials and #3 time in the group of people who are competing the olympics. Kerley hasn't looked great in recent races. I'd probably take Yohan Blake or Akani Simbine for 4th and 5th spots.
Men's 200
1. Noah Lyles (USA) 19.71
2. Kenny Bednarek (USA) 19.84
3. Andre DeGrasse (Canada) 19.90
Lyles has been inconsistent this year but got it done at the trials, he'll be around when it counts most. Bednarek has been consistent and should be up there. DeGrasse has the medals. Maybe Erriyon Knighton, Yohan Blake and Divine Oduduru for next three spots in no particular but I have no clue what I'm talking about with this event.
Men's 400
1. Steven Gardiner (Bahamas) 43.41
2. Michael Norman (USA) 43.59
3. Wade van Nierkerk (South Africa) 43.82
Men's 400 Hurdles
1. Karsten Warholm (Norway) 46.58
2. Rai Benjamin (USA) 46.68
3. Alison Dos Santos (Brazil) 47.04
Women's 400 Hurdles
1. Sydney McLaughlin (USA) 51.76
2. Dalilah Muhammad (USA) 51.87
3. Femke Bol (Netherlands) 52.32
Men's 800m
1. Clayton Murphy (USA) 1:42.71
2. Nijel Amos (Botswana) 1:43.11
3. Emmanuel Korir (Kenya) 1:43.38
Guys who will make the final: Clayton Murphy, Nijel Amos, Emmanuel Korir, Ferguson Rotich, Michael Saruni, Marco Arop, Jesus Lopez, Elliot Giles
American predictions: Murphy 1st, Hoppel and Jewett out in semis (Jewett just misses final, Hoppel way off)
With 13 guys under 1:44 (not all are racing) but no one who has dominated races this year, this is a wide open event where all 3 of my picks could end up not medaling. As much as I'd like a US sweep, Hoppel has looked terrible in pretty much every race this year including the trials where he barely made the team. Hard to see medaling and potentially won't even make the final, Isaiah Jewett is a question mark not having raced since the trials and having such a long season. I don't think his frontrunning strategy will be enough to medal at a world stage. The british runners are good but would have to run a huge PR to be in the mix. Michael Saruni won the Kenyan trials but hasn't run very fast this year. I'm pretty confident Clayton Murphy and Nijel Amos are the two best guys at their peak, but both are inconsistent. Amos was a big question mark until his great run at monaco but is known to bomb major races. Clayton has run a lot of mediocre races (pretty much everything except the trials) but often delivers when it counts. Third spot goes to the best kenyan. Emmanuel Korir only got third at the trials but bounced back for the #2 time in the world at Monaco beating 2nd placer at the trials Ferguson Rotich. Saruni beat them both at the trials but hasn't run faster than 1:44.96. It's too much to drop off 2 seconds off that time, so I'll stick with Korir for third who did the best in a fast race which an olympic final will be.
Women's 800
1. Athing Mu (USA) 1:56.87
2. Ajee Wilson (USA) 1:57.02
3. Jemma Reekie (UK) 1:57.63
American predictions: Mu and Wilson go 1-2, Rogers just misses a medal
Pretty confident in first two. Mu has run great all year, had an amazing trials and it'd be a shock for her not to have a great race. Ajee Wilson brings it when it counts and is rounding into form nicely. Third spot is a toss up between people who have run fast (Almanza and Goule) but bombed recently at Monaco and the slightly slower Brits who ran well at Monaco. I'll take recent success and consistency first over a faster time but not backing it up. Raevyn Rogers also runs well when it counts and could complete the US sweep.
Men's 1500
1. Timothy Cheruyiot (Kenya) 3:28.91
2. Jakob Ingebrigsten (Norway) 3:29.41
3. Oliver Hoare (Australia) 3:29.72
Guys who will make the final: Timothy Cheruyiot, Jakob Ingebrigsten, Oliver Hoare, Josh Kerr, Jake Wightman, Stewart McSweyn, Matthew Centrowitz, Marcin Lewandowski, Taoufik Mahkloufi, Cole Hocker, Samuel Tefera, Charles Simotwo
American Prediction: Centro 5th or 6th, Cole Hocker barely makes final then gets last, Yared Nuguse just misses final (I think Centro and Hocker both have outside medal chances, though)
Probably the best event at the trials, absolutely loaded. Unlike the men's 800m, I expect pretty everyone to bring their A game as this is a much more consistent group. If the "favorite" in the 800 doesn't medal, they probably had a bad race. Here everyone is so good, the "favorite" could have a great race and finish 8th. Timothy Cheruyiot has absolutely dominated the event for the last few years. He frontruns every race as basically a rabbit then still is strong enough at the end to win. He did it in 2019 worlds, he'll do it again here. His one off day at the Kenyan trials means nothing to me- he had an injury on the day then bounced back with a repeat win at Monaco running a PR and all-time top 10. I'd probably put Katir second, but he's just doing the 5K. Jakob Ingebrigsten has pretty much been the dominant #2 in the event. If Cheruyiot isn't there, he almost always wins. He clearly has strength with a 12:48 5K. Pretty much never runs bad and still managed 3:29 low with a cold in Monaco. Wouldn't bet against him. Third spot is more open to me, there isn't one guy who is clearly better than the rest like Cheruyiot and Jakob. Pretty much none of these guys have raced each other either. I think it's between Oliver Hoare and Josh Kerr. Both have been absolutely dominant and won pretty much every race (Hoare lost only to Jakob). I think Hoare looks a little better but it's a close one. I'd put Jake Wightman in that group but he just came off a bad race and lost to Kerr at British champs.
Women's 1500
1. Faith Kipyegon (Kenya) 3:54.78
2. Laura Muir (UK) 3:56.23
3. Elle Purrier (USA) 3:56.58
American predictions: Purrier 2nd or 3rd or 4th, Cory McGee makes final but not up there, Heather McLean out in semis
I don't think Hassan runs, but if she does she'll most likely get 1st or 2nd. Not sure if someone will actually push the pace without Hassan which could change up the medal counts. Muir and Purrier are basically the same to me and are interchangeable. Some fast times from Ethiopians but don't think they'll be as strong in a final.
Men's 5000
1. Jacob Kiplimo (Uganda) 13:07.78
2. Joshua Cheptegei (Uganda) 13:08.32
3. Paul Chelimo (USA) 13:08.41
American predictions: Chelimo 3rd to 5th, Grant Fisher gets 8th or 9th, Woody Kincaid tired from 10K and rounds and doesn't run well
Super wide open event, very hard to predict. I think Cheptegei is a better time trialer than racer and Kiplimo will have a better kick, at least for the shorter event. Katir has been running stellar all year and has phenomenal range as well as closing speed. Mo Ahmed could definitely steal a medal, probably my pick for 4th or 3rd if someone bombs. I don't think Jakob will run but he's definitely a medal threat if he does. Justyn Knight and Getnet Wale should up there, but I don't think they'll have the closing speed to medal. Edit: Forgot about Paul Chelimo as he's not high on the time lists, but I think his experience will come through in a stacked field. Given Cheptegei's bad race in Italy, I think Katir, Chelimo, Cheptegei, and Ahmed are all in the medal mix but I think Kiplimo has an edge up on that group. Would be a crazy stacked event if Jakob does run. I'll predict Katir 4th, Ahmed 5th. Maybe Marc Scott does well but he's doubling and hasn't been running great after March.
Women's 5000
1. Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) 14:19.34
2. Helen Obiri (Kenya) 14:21.65
3. Gudaf Tsegay (Ethiopia) 14:22.11
American Predictions: Karissa Schweizer 6th, Elise Cranny 10th, Rachel Schneider way back
Men's 10000
1. Joshua Cheptegei (Uganda) 26:39.42
2. Jacob Kiplimo (Uganda) 26:41.32
3. Moh Ahmed (Canada) 26:42.31
American Predictions: All finish top 10 with big PR's, Fisher 6th sub 27, Klecker 7th, Kincaid 8th
Loaded event, maybe 2nd best race of the trials? Maybe 7 guys who could win and another 3-5 who could medal. Cheptegei won 2019 worlds over Kejelcha. With no rounds to throw him off his game, I think he'll repeat here and make it fast. Put in Kiplimo and those could be your medalists. Moh Ahmed could pull off a medal, the Ethiopian contingent of Selemon Barega and Hagos Gebriwhet (along with Yomif Kelejcha) is tough to beat. Edit: Gebriwhet isn't on the team (?) (might be in 5k?). Geoffrey Kamworor is also strong. The americans plus Marc Scott are lurking.
Women's 10000
1. Letesenbet Gidey (Ethiopia) 28:53.45
2. Sifan Hassan (Netherlands) 29:02.31
3. Gudaf Tsegay (Ethiopia) 29:29.31
American predictions: Emily Sisson 6th 30:25, Karissa Schweizer 7th 30:30, Alicia Monson not top 10 but PR's
This will be a fast race where the world record gets broken, I predict a reverse order of the 2019 championships and Gidey will break Hassan. No idea if Tsegay is running but she's listed in the entries yet didn't race the event at Ethiopian trials so who knows.
Men's Steeple
no idea
American predictions: Mason Ferlic 10th, Hilary Bor and Bernard Keter bomb
Women's Steeple
1. Hyvin Kiyeng (Kenya) 8:58.98
2. Emma Coburn (USA) 9:00.13
3. Beatrice Chepkoech (Kenya) 9:03.45
American predictions: Coburn 2nd, Frerichs 4th or 5th, Constien not top 10 maybe doesn't make final
Men's Marathon
1. Eliud Kipchoge (Kenya) 2:07:35
2. Lawrence Cherono (Kenya) 2:07:53
3. Galen Rupp (USA) 2:07:58
American predictions: Rupp 3rd, Jake Riley and Abdi not top 30
Tough event to predict, loaded with so many east africans who have run super fast but don't have the championship pedigree to back it up. The Ethiopian team is stellar and Mosinet Geremew isn't even on it. However, none of those guys are consistent enough to think they'd medal. Shura Kitata won London and the Ethiopian trials so I think he has the best shot. Desisa usually does well at major championships. Eliud Kipchoge is the goat and will likely deliver. I originally had Rupp 2nd but Lawrence Cherono's resume is tough to beat- won Boston and Chicago in 2019 then ran 2:03:04 last December (#8 all time). I think Rupp's experience and ability to run well when it counts will get him another medal, even if he's been a bit rusty this year and isn't the third best runner on paper.
Women's Marathon
no idea
American Predictions: Molly Seidel 10th, Aliphine Tuliamuk 25th, Sally Kipyego not in top 30
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